Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a three-stage plan for reopening the economy from lockdown that could allow pubs across England to serve customers again by Easter weekend at the beginning of April, i can reveal.
A senior Government official has told this newspaper the Prime Ministers road map out of lockdown will begin with the reopening of schools, already scheduled for 8 March.
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It is understood the Government will then assess the effect of pupils returning to lessons on the viruss reproduction number or R number before moving to the next stage.
If scientific data shows the R number, which fell below one on Friday for the first time since July, remains low and coronavirus infections remain at an acceptable level, then the Prime Minister will give the green light to non-essential shops reopening towards the end of March.
The doors of pubs in England could be re-opened by Easter (Photo: Getty)
Hospitality business could open by Good Friday
If, in the week leading up to Good Friday on 2 April, there is no significant rise in the R number or infections, then the final stage of Mr Johnsons plan would be put into action, allowing hospitality businesses, including hotels, restaurants and pubs, to open their doors again from the Easter weekend.
This would also herald a return to staycations, but while people will be permitted to holiday in England, foreign travel is likely to be curtailed for some months to come.
The plan covers England at present but is likely to inform thinking across the devolved administrations in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
The Government official said: My understanding is the Prime Minister is encouraged by a slew of data coming out that shows the positive impact the current lockdown has had. By March, theres also a good chance that almost, if not all over-50s and younger vulnerable groups would have been given at least their first dose of a vaccine.
The optimism is increasing at Downing Street and we may well be enjoying a pint in the pub by Easter if the data continues to improve in the coming weeks.
Revellers enjoy a night out in central Liverpool before the third lockdown was imposed (Photo: Getty)
Tier system to be axed
The source added Mr Johnson has also been persuaded to axe the tier system, which many experts believe did little to prevent the spread of the virus, especially the more transmissible Kent variant.
The Government would like to do away with the tier system entirely, said the official. If another lockdown is required in the future because of another new, more transmissible, variant that current vaccines dont work against comes along, then theres not a great deal anyone can do about that.
The current plan is very much the three-stage approach, beginning with the reopening of schools, watching the R number, and if that remains low then non-essential shops will open. Then another short wait until hospitality businesses open.
Downing to set out plan on 22 February
The plan, which will depend on cases continuing to fall quickly, has caused concern among some who believe a full opening up of the economy by Easter will be too early. Scientists will also be urging caution.
However, the road map, which is expected to be launched on 22 February in time to give schools two weeks notice of their reopening, will please many of Mr Johnsons backbench MPs, who have been clamouring for weeks for lockdown to end.
A Downing Street spokesman said: We keep the latest data and evidence under constant review and on 22 February, subject to the findings, we will set out our plan for reopening schools and gradually reopening our economy and society.