Tesla started 2021 at a price of $735 per share. A Tesla Skeptic is still a skeptic but he laid out three conditions for Tesla to double from the start of the year to $1500.
1. Tesla must make and deliver 1 million cars.2. Tesla must expand globally. Dan Kaplinger refers to the rumor that Tesla will expand strongly into India.3. Tesla shareholders must keep HODLing (Holding on for Dear Life)
For Item 1, I expect Tesla to guide to about 800k-900k in cars on the January 27, 2021 annual call. I expect Tesla to exceed that guidance and actually deliver 1 million cars in 2021. Tesla already delivered in Q42020 180,550 cars. This is 722,200 cars on an annual basis if four quarters in 2021 delivered.Q42019, had 112,000 cars delivered. This was 448,000 cars on an annualized basis. 2021 actually had 500,000 cars delivered despite a pandemic that caused factory shutdowns which removed 60,000 cars. There was an expansion in China of the Model 3 plant in Shanghai.
Tesla has completed the Model Y plant in Shanghai. 250,000 Model Y from China in 2021 and 300,000 Model 3 from China and 450,000 cars from Fremont and 30,000 from Berlin and 20,000 from Texas would get Tesla to 1,050,000 cars.
For Item 2, rumors and actions indicate that Tesla could begin some kind of operation in India by June 2021. It seems reasonable that India would offer big incentives for Tesla to start operations in India. Tesla appears to be partnering with Tata. An R&D base in India would be useful for software development.
Tesla YouTubers have speculated that Tesla would start selling three-wheel vehicles in India. Tesla has over $20 billion to start new gigafactories. As Berlin and Texas are complete in Q22021 then I would expect at least 2 and more likely 4 new gigafactories to be announced. I expect Tesla Shanghai to continue expansion from 550,000 cars to 1 million car capacity in 2022 to 2023.
News which might not have gotten enough attention yesterday, confirmation of a R&D unit in Bangalore, India from Karnataka CM.
This is important & going to be huge for Tesla. https://t.co/E3l5un7oEnpic.twitter.com/Ol5E6jC2Qa
— Tesla Club India® #TeslaIndia (@TeslaClubIN) January 13, 2021
BREAKING : @Tesla has been incorporated in Karnataka, India on January 8, 2021 as “TESLA INDIA MOTORS AND ENERGY PRIVATE LIMITED”. Company also lists 3 Directors for India.
It’s happening!!
Welcome @elonmusk , we are waiting for official launch#TeslaIndia#TCINpic.twitter.com/a5mMY5P84s
— Tesla Club India® #TeslaIndia (@TeslaClubIN) January 12, 2021
For Item 3, the SP500 index funds cannot sell Tesla while it remains in the SP500. Funds that Benchmark to the SP500 have to acquire Tesla. If the Benchmark funds do not buy Tesla at the same weighting which is now about 1.9% of total funds then they are effectively shorting Tesla relative SP500 funds. There are about $5 trillion in SP500 funds and $8 trillion in funds that Benchmark to the SP500. Tesla above $695 means that all Benchmark funds underweight Tesla are losing ground to SP500 funds. Tesla at 1500 would mean Benchmark funds with no Tesla would lost 160 basis points relative to SP500 index funds.
Every year people add money to 401K and IRAs. At year-end 2019, Investors held slightly more mutual fund assets in DC plans ($5.1 trillion) than in IRAs ($4.8 trillion). Among DC plans, 401(k) plans held the most assets in mutual funds, with $4.0 trillion, followed by 403(b) plans ($551 billion), other private-sector DC plans ($421 billion), and 457 plans ($133 billion). About $1 trillion a year is invested into 401k and IRA. If half of the mutual fund and ETFs were index funds or benchmark index funds and Tesla was purchased at equal weight, then there would be $10 billion in added Tesla purchases every year from index and benchmark index funds at the current level. If Tesla reaches $1500 then the weighting would be 3%.
My Catalysts for Tesla to Double or Triple This Year
Tesla operationally succeeds as described above. Also, shortly after Tesla surpasses $1000 per share, Tesla will announce another 5:1 split. The last split initiated a runup in Tesla stock price by 50%. Tesla will be announcing new self-driving software improvements.
Sources -Motley Fool, Twitter – Telsa Club IndiaWritten By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian owns shares of Tesla)